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Sequoia partner forecasts $731 billion in SpaceX revenue by 2028

The forecast would exceed what Walmart or Amazon sold last year, and its inputs are largely drawn from SpaceX's own earnings call.

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Aakash GuptaLead source
A Sequoia partner says SpaceX will bring in $731 billion in 2028. That's more than Walmart or Amazon sold last year, from a company that made $18.7 billion in 2025. It sounds made up until you check where his numbers came from. Almost every big one is straight off SpaceX's own earnings call, and a few are actually lower than what the company told investors. Shaun Maguire's model has SpaceX doing $36.3 billion in the first quarter of 2027. On the October call, SpaceX's CFO guided to somewhere between $33 and $37 billion. On computing power, SpaceX says it's aiming for about 13 gigawatts by the end of 2027, with a stretch plan above 20. Shaun only gave them 10.2, so he's assuming they build about 3 fewer gigawatts than they say they will. Pricing works the same way. Back in August, Elon…
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