Anthropic warns its AI may soon speed up its own progress

SITUATION EXPLAINED: Anthropic's updated IPO filing says its AI may "imminently" start dramatically accelerating its own progress. • Anthropic filed the amended S-1 on Nov 2, a week after its first IPO filing • Under Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy, "dramatically accelerated progress" reportedly means AI-driven progress at about twice the rate it would otherwise expect • The filing says no current model has crossed that line yet, and the warning is based on its expectations for future models • Q3 revenue was about $17B, more than 12x what it was a year earlier • Compute costs now take about 58 cents of every revenue dollar, up from 48 cents the quarter before • The $895.4B in compute commitments stretches to 2045, with about $447.5B due by the end of 2030 • Bloomberg reported…

ANTHROPIC: "we may imminently meet our Responsible Scaling Policy’s definition of 'dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI.'" "we do not anticipate being able to safely use Claude to fully autonomously design and build successive generations of frontier models"

SITUATION DETECTED: In an amended S-1 filed this morning, Anthropic disclosed that internal estimates show its models may imminently cross its RSI Responsible Scaling Policy threshold for "dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI".

New language added on page 29 of Anthropic’s S-1/A this morning says that internal estimates indicate they may imminently meet the RSI danger threshold of 'dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI' - as much progress in one year as two years of the 2018–2024 baseline!